Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Active RFID and Sensor Networks 2011-2021

Active RFID and Sensor Networks 2011-2021

Active RFID and Sensor Networks

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Report summary
This IDTechEx report comprehensively analyzes the technologies, players and markets with detailed ten year forecasts, including tag numbers, unit prices and interrogator numbers and prices. Details of over 75 active RFID implementations are given along with over 100 suppliers and full technology analysis – from printed batteries to Wi-Fi RFID to UWB tags. We have constructed ten year forecasts usefully segmented by frequency, application, territory, etc, and illustrated by dozens of tables and figures.

The active RFID market will grow to over 11 times its present size by 2018, so whether a user or supplier, you need to keep up with this under-reported subject or get left behind.

Market forecasts
The term Active RFID incorporates many technologies including Real Time Locating Systems, Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and Active RFID with Zigbee, RuBee, Ultra Wide Band and WiFi. Active RFID, where a battery drives the tag, is responsible for an increasing percentage of the money spent in the burgeoning RFID market. It will rise from 12% of the total RFID market this year to 28% in 2018, meaning a huge $7.49 billion market. If we include the market for cell phone RFID modules (another form of active RFID), the market is an additional $0.6 billion in 2008 and $1.55 billion in 2018.

Factors for growth
The primary factors creating this growth will be Real Time Location Systems (RTLS), and ubiquitous RFID sensor systems (mainly disposable), including ones in the form of Smart Active Labels (SALs). Conventional active RFID used where passive solutions are inadequate and RFID modules for mobile phones will make up the rest. The rapid growth of the active RFID market is being driven by such factors as:

Much stronger market demand for tracking, locating and monitoring people and things. This is driven by security, safety, cost and customer satisfaction, for example. Important factors are increased competition in consumer goods, the new terrorism, internal theft, threatened epidemics of disease, coping with increasing numbers of elderly persons and consumers demanding better service and more information.
Reduction in cost and size of the tags and systems. With lower power circuits, button batteries are now adequate for most applications and even printed batteries are gaining a place. In future, miniature fuel cells, printed photovoltaics and other power sources will have a place. This will help to overcome constraints of lifetime, cost and size.
Development of Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN) where large numbers of active RFID tags with sensors are radio networked in buildings, forests, rivers, hospitals and many other locations.
Availability of open standards – notably the new ISO 18000-7, IEEE 802.15.4 and NFC.
Leveraging many newly popular forms of short range wireless communication, particularly WiFi and ZigBee and including mesh networks
Use of mobile phones for purchasing, mass transit and interrogating smart posters, etc.

Active RFID sales to 2008
To the beginning of 2008, 617 million active RFID tags have been sold with the vast majority used for car clickers (600 million). Like these, a large percentage of active RFID tags being sold in the future will replace nothing: they will perform new functions. The second biggest use for active RFID to date has been by the military, using 6.2 million active RFID tags so far.

We are now in the decade of most active tags having button batteries and being the size of a matchbox and often incorporating other radio systems, and sometimes being parasitic upon them in some cases. Overlapping this, we are starting the decade or more of active RFID in the form of a label or laminate. This has been triggered by costs of smart active labels and battery assisted passive (BAP) tags coming down, even those incorporating sensors, and their laminar batteries having enhanced power and life. Some will even have displays. That will run in parallel with matchbox-sized and smaller active RFID tags that are exceptionally capable, with such features as Real Time Location Systems (RTLS) and multiple sensing.

Strong Investment
Recently, the investment community has taken even more interest in active RFID. Of 27 recent fund raisings by RFID companies studied by IDTechEx, 37% of the companies involved are in active RFID. 22% are in the particularly popular RTLS sector. Recent acquisitions also favour active RFID companies. Indeed the largest exit, for hundreds of millions of dollars, was a company selling active RFID and RTLS systems.
Active RFID a systems business
Companies involved know that this is not like the highest volume uses of passive RFID tags where disposable labels are usually involved and the label cost can be 50% of total cost. Most active RFID (such as RTLS) is more of a systems business.

Active tag price
With over 100 companies now involved in some part of the active RFID value chain, and considerable government financing of research on low cost active RFID, unit prices will strongly erode, creating a strong growth in numbers sold. The price erosion will be more rapid in some years as new technologies come into play such as new microbatteries and printed logic.

Throughout the next ten years, RTLS will dominate the spend on tags but this will consist of many small orders. Mobile phone / cell phone modules will see considerable price erosion as they are increasingly incorporated into the phone circuitry and volumes increase – already NTTDoCoMo have shipped over 47 million cellphones with RFID modules.

In the future, we see active RFID as intimately involved with many short range radio systems and interfaces, including passive RFID.

Analysis of Active RFID implementations
In our analysis of 75 active RFID case studies from 18 countries, the largest number of projects we have located has been in Logistics with around double the number for each of the nearest contenders – Air Industry, Automotive/Transportation and Healthcare. Added to those as important sectors will be such things as safety of constructions and people monitored by Ubiquitous Sensor Networks in later years. Meanwhile, RTLS is being put in about 50 hospitals yearly, for staff, patients and assets. In the case studies, the items that are tagged were mainly containers, followed by vehicles, conveyances and people and this probably reflects the market as a whole.

This report is the only one to comprehensively cover the full picture around the world.

Publisher >> IDTechEx
Report Category: Telecommunications

1.1. Background
1.1.1. Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
1.1.2. Active vs passive RFID
1.1.3. Sub categories of Active tags
1.1.4. Three generations of active RFID
1.1.5. Many different ideal frequencies for active RFID
1.1.6. Smart Active Labels (SAL), Battery Assisted Backscatter
1.1.7. Cumulative sales active vs passive
1.1.8. Lessons from sixty years of active RFID
1.2. Historic active RFID tag sales 2005 to 2010
1.2.1. Progress in 2005
1.2.2. Progress in 2006
1.2.3. Progress in 2007
1.2.4. Progress in 2008
1.2.5. Progress in 2009
1.3. The active RFID value chain and paybacks
1.3.1. Value chain
1.3.2. Project costs and paybacks
1.3.3. Cost versus RFID choice
1.4. Total Asset Visibility
1.5. Civilian logistics – Smart and Secure Tradelanes
1.6. Five key priorities for TAV
1.7. The $1 billion yearly potential in the prison service
2.1. Spread of parameters and applications
2.1.1. Military, Logistics and Automotive/ transportation are dominant applications so far
2.1.2. Containers and vehicles are the main items that are tagged
2.1.3. Frequencies are varied
2.1.4. Ranges are varied
2.1.5. Totally new types of battery
2.1.6. The most important countries
2.2. Case studies of active RFID in manufacturing
2.2.1. Volkswagen, Germany – work in progress
2.2.2. Peugeot, France – work in progress
2.2.3. Club Car, USA – work in progress
2.2.4. AM General, USA – part replenishment
2.2.5. Merrimac Industries, USA – tracking folders
2.2.6. BMW, UK – work in progress
2.3. Case studies of active RFID in transportation and automotive
2.3.1. 30 major car companies – vehicle immobilisers
2.3.2. Shanghai Xinzhuang Bus Terminal, China – tracking buses
2.3.3. NedTrain, The Netherlands – wheel maintenance
2.3.4. Tracker/ Police, UK – locating stolen vehicles
2.3.5. Hills, UK – numberplates
2.3.6. Ford, USA – location of new cars
2.3.7. Postauto Bus, Switzerland – bus terminal management
2.3.8. Tranz Rail, New Zealand – freight management
2.3.9. General Motors, USA – containers
2.3.10. Shanghai Railway, China
2.3.11. Hamburg Metro Germany
2.3.12. Parking, Arizona State University, USA
2.3.13. Korea World Cup vehicles
2.4. Case studies of active RFID in the air industry
2.4.1. Sepang Airport, Malaysia – catering trolleys
2.4.2. Los Angeles International Airport/ Long Beach, USA – vehicle tolling & management
2.4.3. Tacoma/ Seattle International Airport, USA – vehicle tolling & management / New York Newark International Airport, USA – vehicle tolling & management
2.4.4. Orange County Airport, USA – vehicle tolling
2.4.5. Hong Kong International Airport, China – catering trolleys
2.4.6. Vienna International Airport, Austria – ground support equipment
2.4.7. Charles de Gaulle International Airport, France – taxis
2.4.8. Envirotainer, Belgium – unit load devices
2.4.9. Air Canada – food trolleys
2.4.10. Arlanda International Airport, Sweden parking
2.5. Case studies of active RFID in healthcare
2.5.1. National Health Service UK social workers
2.5.2. Massachusetts General Hospital, USA people and assets
2.5.3. St Elisabeth Medical Center patients USA
2.5.4. Hospitals, Israel and elsewhere – patient and staff tracking/ alert
2.5.5. Shelby County Regional Medical Center, USA – patient tracking
2.5.6. Royal Sussex County Hospital, UK – assets
2.5.7. HCA Hospital Dallas, USA – mother baby matching
2.5.8. HCA Hospital Arlington, USA – mother baby matching
2.5.9. French Blood Agency, France – chemovigilance
2.5.10. Alexandra Hospital, Singapore – people tracking for SARS and National University Hospital Singapore – people tracking for SARS
2.5.11. Hart District, UK – alarm for elderly
2.6. Case studies of active RFID in the military sector
2.6.1. Kosovo/ US Military – military assets and supplies
2.6.2. Ministry of Defence, UK – military supplies
2.6.3. NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) assets
2.6.4. Department of Defense, USA – medical supplies
2.6.5. Bosnia/ UK Military – supply chain.
2.7. Case studies of active RFID in logistics
2.7.1. NYK Logistics, USA – intermodal freight containers
2.7.2. Fluor Construction, USA pipe spools
2.7.3. Brink’s, USA – transport container access
2.7.4. Felixstowe Dock & Rail Company, UK – Rubber Tyre Gantry Cranes RTGC handling intermodal containers
2.7.5. Agricultural Cooperative, France – vehicle tare weighing
2.7.6. Yard management, USA
2.7.7. Spittelau Thermal Waste Treatment Plant, Austria – trucks
2.7.8. Seattle Tacoma Sea Port, USA – intermodal container seals
2.7.9. Royal Mail, UK – roll cages
2.7.10. Parcelforce, UK – postal trailers
2.7.11. Mercator Transportation, USA – intermodal container tracking
2.7.12. Lynx Express, UK – roll cages
2.7.13. London Waste, UK – vehicles
2.7.14. J.A.M Distribution and Cemex, USA – vehicle loading and fuelling
2.7.15. HiroCem, Slovakia – trucks
2.7.16. DHL and Nokia, UK/ Finland – cases
2.7.17. Intermodal Cargo Shipments
2.7.18. Carlisle Carriers, USA – tractors and trailers
2.7.19. Alliant Atlantic Food, USA – access control
2.7.20. Somerfield Supermarkets, UK – trucks
2.7.21. Argos, UK – conveyances
2.7.22. Paramount Farms, USA – farming vehicles
2.7.23. Meat producer, Canada – case monitoring
2.8. Case studies of active RFID in Retail
2.8.1. Selfridges, UK – food containers
2.8.2. Safeway Supermarkets, UK – trolleys
2.9. Other
2.9.1. HM Prison Service, UK – keys
2.9.2. Delta Downs Racetrack and Casino, USA – keys
3.1. The tag
3.2. The interrogator
3.3. Other system components.
3.4. Multi-tag reading (anti-collision)
3.5. Choices of physical configuration of active RFID systems
3.5.1. RFID – basic operation
3.5.2. One at a time or many at a time
3.5.3. Active beacon tags – long range
3.5.4. Signpost system for long range active tag configurations
3.5.5. Real-time locating systems – long range
3.6. Options on range
3.7. Systems aspects
3.7.1. Network vs stand alone
3.7.2. Stand alone – polled vs not polled
3.7.3. Networked – on-line
3.8. Networking at tag, reader or system level
3.9. Data on the device or network
3.9.1. Spectrum of choice
3.9.2. Data capture on the tag or not – a summary
3.9.3. Continuous monitoring or not
3.10. Open and closed service provider access
3.11. Networks within networks
3.12. Ad hoc / mesh networks
3.13. The importance of interoperability
3.14. Choice of frequency
3.14.1. Licence free frequencies
3.14.2. Ultra Wide Band
3.15. Supplier case studies
3.15.1. Parco Wireless
3.15.2. Ubisense
3.15.3. DSRC Industry Consortium
3.15.4. TagMaster
3.16. Impressions from the IDTechEx Active RFID and RTLS Conference
4.1. Overall construction
4.2. Batteries
4.2.1. Battery overview
4.2.2. Coin type batteries
4.2.3. Power Paper
4.2.4. Solicore, USA
4.2.5. Infinite Power Solutions, USA
4.2.6. Cymbet, USA
4.2.7. Blue Spark
4.2.8. Research
4.3. Fuel cells
4.4. Photovoltaics
4.5. Other power sources for active RFID – energy harvesters
4.5.1. Case Study of Energy Harvesting powered Active RFID Sensors
4.5.2. An Interview with EnOcean
4.6. Photocapacitors and supercapacitors
4.7. Active RFID with sensing
5.1. Standards
5.1.1. Standards for active RFID systems
5.1.2. Benefits of standardisation
5.1.3. Types of standard
5.1.4. Open and closed application systems
5.1.5. Standards organisations
5.1.6. Types of standard relating to item level RFID
5.1.7. When long range is a problem
5.1.8. Summary of the essential standards issues and opportunities
5.2. Radio regulations
5.3. Privacy issues
5.4. Bluetooth, WiFi, ZigBee, Active RFID and NFC compared and combined
5.4.1. Bridging the gap
5.4.2. Bluetooth and WiFi
5.4.3. ZigBee
5.4.4. Conventional active RFID
5.4.5. Combinations
5.4.6. Near Field Communications (NFC)
5.4.7. RFID and communications interfaces
5.4.8. A virtual connector
5.4.9. Link to RFID smart cards
5.4.10. NFC Forum
5.4.11. Standardization of NFC
6.1. Triangulation, radio fingerprinting and multilateration
6.2. GPS
6.3. WiFi RTLS from AeroScout
6.4. Supplier case study: Ekahau USA
6.5. Another form of RTLS
6.6. Near Field Electromagnetic Ranging (NFER)
6.7. Ultra Wide Band
6.8. Shakeout in Real Time Locating Systems
6.9. Third Generation Active RFID is WSN
6.9.1. Managing chaos and imperfection
6.9.2. The whole is much greater than the parts
6.9.3. Achilles heel – power
6.9.4. View from UCLA
6.9.5. View of Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers
6.9.6. View of the International Telecommunications Union
6.9.7. View of the Kelvin Institute
6.9.8. Contrast with other short range radio
6.9.9. A practical proposition
6.9.10. Wireless mesh network structure
6.10. Three waves of adoption
6.10.2. Subsuming earlier forms of active RFID?
6.11. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN) and TIP
6.12. Defining features of the three generations
6.13. WSN paybacks
6.14. Supply chain of the future
7.1. Price sensitivity
7.2. Many bridges to cross
7.3. Forecasts for tags 2011-2021
7.4. RFID Enabled Cellphones
7.5. Forecast for total systems plus tags
7.6. Active RFID suppliers
7.7. Forecast for systems excluding tags 2011-2021
7.8. Forecast of systems including tags 2011-2021
7.9. Total RFID market
7.10. WSN history and forecasts
7.11. Number of suppliers 2011-2021
1.1. Important functions that an active RFID tag can perform
1.2. Benefits and disadvantages of active RFID vs passive RFID
1.3. AIM survey of RFID user priorities
1.4. The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions to the beginning of 2010
1.5. Sales of active RFID tags from 1944 to start of 2010
1.6. Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
1.7. Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
1.8. Value Chain 2006
1.9. Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
1.10. Value Chain 2007
1.11. Value of RFID active tag market in 2008
1.12. Value Chain 2008
1.13. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2009
1.14. Value of RFID active tag market in 2009
1.15. Value Chain 2009
1.16. Cost structure of active vs passive RFID projects
1.17. Active RFID in the prison and parole service
2.1. Approximate distribution of case studies by range.
3.1. Summary of today’s RFID physical configurations
3.2. The spectrum of choice between stand alone and networked RFID systems
3.3. The spectrum of choice between basic number plate tags and those with high data retention
3.4. Spectrum of choice from short to long range
3.5. Choice of active RFID tags – typical cost, range, memory
3.6. The commonly used licence free frequencies for active RFID
4.1. Shapes of battery for small RFID tags advantages and disadvantages
4.2. The spectrum of choice of technologies for batteries
4.3. Examples of potential sources of flexible thin film batteries
4.4. Examples of universities and research centres developing laminar batteries.
4.5. Comparison of conventional active RFID with temperature/ time recording and Smart Active Label (SAL) versions.
5.1. The most important standards for active RFID
5.2. The permitted frequency bands for RFID by territory
5.3. Bluetooth, WiFi, ZigBee and Active RFID compared
6.1. Defining features of the three generations of active RFID
7.1. Global active RFID by value 2010-2021, tag vs non-tag (readers, software, services) in $ million
7.2. Global market for active tags in millions 2010-2021
7.3. Global market for active tags – unit prices in cents 2010-2021
7.4. Tag market value of global market in millions of dollars 2010-2021
7.5. Global market for readers, software and services in millions of dollars 2009-2019
7.6. Sales of active RFID tags from 1944 to start of 2010
7.7. Main frequencies by type
7.8. The value of the RFID enabled active RFID cellphone market
7.9. Some substantial opportunities for active RFID systems including tags in the next ten years
7.10. Main present and future locations of active RFID tags
7.11. The IDTechEx forecast for active RFID systems excluding tags 2010-2021
7.12. The total global spend on active RFID systems plus tags in US$ millions
7.13. Total active market as a portion of the total RFID market
7.14. IDTechEx WSN Forecast 2010-2020 with RTLS for comparison
7.15. Number of suppliers of active RFID doing serious business 2011, 2016, 2021
1.1. RFID range required for typical applications
1.2. Active tag from Identec for anti-theft
1.3. Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID
1.4. Road map of development of active RFID and allied technologies
1.5. RFID hierarchy
1.6. Active RFID characteristics
1.7. Frequency versus range
1.8. SAL-C concept of a warehouse managed using disposable SALs on packages.
1.9. An active RFID car clicker working in semi-active mode at 433 MHz
1.10. Value chain for active RFID in 2010
1.11. RFID value chain in 2021
1.12. RFID read range versus cost for different RFID systems
1.13. Typical military deployment of active RFID tags
1.14. A military viewpoint of active RFID
1.15. Active RFID interrogator deployment in the Iraq war
1.16. Mobile interrogators in the Iraq war
1.17. Write terminal and docking station
1.18. Survey of priorities in sea freight by AT Kearney
1.19. Sealing and anti-tamper capability with intermodal containers
1.20. Smart and Secure Tradelanes active RFID seal being used to lock an intermodal container
1.21. Final check of security at dock
1.22. Security check of truck at customs point – interrogator monitoring active RFID tag
1.23. Some of the potential benefits throughout the supply chain
1.24. RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse.
1.25. Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates
1.26. Belt transmitters worn by officers and staff
2.1. Active RFID wrist strap to protect disoriented patients
2.2. TransCore system in action showing interrogators mounted on an overhead walkway
2.3. EIRIS Technology IRFIDTM Components
2.4. EIRIS Technology Tags
2.5. EIRIS Technology : Who, What, Where and When? – WWWWTM
2.6. EIRIS System Architecture
2.7. EIRIS Technology Optimal Installation
2.8. ELPAS’ System Architecture
2.9. ELPAS’ Healthcare Applications
3.1. Basic operation of an active RFID system
3.2. RFID – basic operation
3.3. Short range semi- passive tags
3.4. Active beacon tags – long range
3.5. Antenna hierarchy of Savi EchoPoint active RFID system
3.6. Savi EchoPoint active tag
3.7. Various semi-active tags from Axcess Technologies
3.8. Real Time Locating Systems – long range triangulation
3.9. WhereNet/Zebra System Components
3.10. Networks within networks – the “Russian Doll” approach
3.11. Three generations of active RFID
3.12. Technical performance for active RFID in crowded environments as a function of frequency in the view of Savi Technology
3.13. UWB frequency spread compared with some alternative active RFID bands in the microwave region.
3.14. A Ubisense healthcare application of UWB active RFID.
3.15. The elements of the Parco Wireless UWB RFID system
3.16. Parco UWB RFID tags
3.17. Asset tags from Axcess
4.1. The Power Paper battery
4.2. The Infinite Power battery is very small
4.3. Infinite Power batteries ready for use
4.4. Cymbet lithium thin film flexible battery
4.5. Relative performance claimed by Cymbet for its flexible batteries
4.6. Carbon-zinc thin film battery from Thin Battery Technologies.
4.7. Konarka photovoltaic flexible film
4.8. Self-powered Wireless Sensor Technology from EnOcean
4.9. Solar powered wireless sensor node
4.10. Smart label road map
4.11. Semi-passive RFID label from KSW Microtec
5.1. Layers of logistic units
5.2. The relative benefits and disadvantages of IEEE 802.11, IEEE 802.15.3a, IEEE 802.15.4 (WPAN)
5.3. Examples of 802.11 and 802.15.5 tags and readers from Tagsense
5.4. ZigBee hierarchy
5.5. Siemens hierarchy of networks
5.6. ISO 18000-7 devices
5.7. X-Mark Systems prevent mismatching in hospitals
5.8. Identec Solutions semi-active RFID personnel tag.
5.9. Identec Solutions secure access configuration
5.10. Verichip (X-Mark Systems) wander prevention system for disoriented elderly in care homes and hospitals
5.11. Some applications for NFC, usually in the form of second generation (active RFID reader) cellphones
5.12. Vending and ticket machine payment
5.13. Smart posters
5.14. Music downloads
5.15. Frequent payments for less than £UK7 ($12.5) in a city such as London UK
6.1. AeroScout WiFi RTLS tags
6.2. AeroScout WiFi armbands
6.3. Ekahau WiFi tag
6.4. MicroStrain WSN node with 55 day battery life
6.5. WSN compared with Bluetooth and WiFi in respect of power and data rate.
6.6. WSN compared with other short range radio in respect of range and data rate typically available
6.7. Detailed view of range vs data rate
6.8. A basic wireless mesh network
6.9. WSN backhaul
6.10. Diagrammatic illustration of the three waves of adoption of active RFID.
6.11. Possible area of deployment vs system cost
6.12. Tolerance of faults and unauthorised repositioning vs system cost
6.13. Tag cost today vs system cost
6.14. Number of tags per interrogator vs system cost
6.15. Infrastructure cost vs system cost
6.16. RTLS progress towards the ultimate supply chain
7.1. The future lower tag price – larger yearly numbers and the new tag technologies that will make it possible
7.2. Market opportunity for disposable electronic displays
7.3. Global active RFID by value and type 2010-2021
7.4. Overlapping eras of evolution of active RFID in its new, broader definition, including use of the new radio systems for active RFID 1990-2025.
7.5. Global market for active tags in millions 2010-2021
7.6. Global market for active tags – unit prices in cents 2010-2021
7.7. Tag market value of global market in millions of dollars 2010-2021
7.8. Global market for readers, software and services in millions of dollars 2009-2019
7.9. An active RFID cellphone module

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